One of my most important and consistent morning rituals is meditation. It helps me get centered and focused for the day. Many days that’s about all that happens. Occasionally I fall back to sleep, and once in awhile I get a “message” from the Great Beyond, or at least that’s how it feels. This morning was one of the times. A question came to me, a day after the USA election day results made it clear that the American voters have chosen Donald Trump to be our President for the next four years. The question, well, it’s the title of this article and podcast:
Have the American voters just sealed the fate of our species on Earth?
So, after my meditation, I went to my AI writing teammate who I refer to affectionately as GePeTo (and who is really ChatGPT) and entered this prompt:
Please go in depth as an expert climatologist in addressing, exploring this question: what is the likely scenario if the USA continues to ignore and deny climate change for the next four years?
Before I provide you with GePeTo’s response, let me tell you why I’m pondering these questions and sharing them with you. Our soon-to-be-next President, Donald Trump is a climate change denier, or at least he doesn’t believe that we humans have any influence on climate change. To verify this, I asked GePeTo this question:
What facts can you provide me regarding Donald Trump’s position on climate change?
Here is a summarized response:
Donald Trump’s stance on climate change has been largely defined by skepticism, regulatory rollbacks, and an emphasis on fossil fuel production. Throughout his presidency, Trump consistently questioned the scientific consensus on climate change, at one point labeling it a “hoax” and expressing doubt over the human role in global warming. In 2017, he withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement, arguing that its terms were economically disadvantageous, making the U.S. the only nation to exit the global climate accord at the time.
Under Trump’s leadership, over 100 environmental protections were rolled back to prioritize energy independence and economic growth, especially for oil, gas, and coal industries. His administration promoted increased drilling on public lands, reduced vehicle fuel efficiency standards, and sought to reduce support for renewable energy initiatives. In his 2024 campaign, Trump has indicated plans to double down on these policies if re-elected, including repealing the Inflation Reduction Act, which funds clean energy projects, and withdrawing from the Paris Agreement again. He has also expressed intent to end wind energy subsidies and further reduce energy efficiency regulations, underscoring his focus on traditional energy sources over climate-focused policies.
Since GePeTo’s response as a climatologist is quite detailed, I’ll start with the conclusion, then provide the details of the response, for those of you who are in a rush. But if you are someone who cares for our Earth as well as our ability to continue to live on it, please read and/or listen to the whole response, then share it…share it…share with your friends, family members, hell, with everyone. After all, we’re all in this together, and the next four years may be some of the most challenging in our life times.
In Summary
If the U.S. continues to ignore climate change for the next four years, the result will be an acceleration of climate-related damage that impacts the environment, the economy, and social stability. This delay will compound the challenges, making it increasingly difficult and costly to mitigate future damage. The consequences would be felt most acutely in the U.S. but would also ripple out globally, given the U.S.'s influence and emissions footprint.
In the coming years, climate-related policies and technologies will be crucial in defining the quality of life for future generations. Without concerted action, the U.S. risks facing escalating environmental, economic, and social costs, potentially surpassing our capacity to adapt. Even a four-year period of denial could push us closer to a climate trajectory with catastrophic and irreversible impacts—impacts we may eventually be powerless to reverse.
Now for the Details
If the United States, one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters and the world’s biggest economy, were to continue denying and disregarding climate change for the next four years, the ramifications would be profound and far-reaching, not only for the U.S. but also for the global climate. Let's dive deeply into the various scenarios that may unfold across multiple domains: environmental, economic, social, and geopolitical.
1. Environmental Consequences: Accelerating Climate Change Impacts
Increased Emissions: Without proactive federal climate policies, the U.S. would likely continue its reliance on fossil fuels, contributing significant amounts of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) to the atmosphere. This would accelerate global warming, pushing temperatures toward the higher end of the projected warming spectrum.
Temperature Rise and Extreme Weather: The lack of action would contribute to a temperature rise that could make heatwaves more frequent, intense, and longer-lasting. Areas across the U.S. would see hotter summers, which can increase heat-related illnesses and exacerbate drought conditions, especially in the Southwest.
Rising Sea Levels and Coastal Damage: Higher global temperatures accelerate glacial melt and thermal expansion of seawater, leading to rising sea levels. Coastal cities like Miami, New York, and New Orleans would experience worsened flooding, saltwater intrusion into drinking water, and increased damage from hurricanes. With U.S. inaction, the global sea-level rise may outpace current projections, threatening hundreds of billions of dollars in coastal infrastructure.
Loss of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Collapse: As temperatures rise and weather patterns shift, ecosystems and species struggle to adapt. The U.S. has diverse ecosystems, from coral reefs in Florida to alpine tundras in the Rockies, many of which could face irreparable damage. Denial of climate science could lead to policies that further threaten protected lands, wetlands, and forests, disrupting wildlife, increasing extinction rates, and reducing biodiversity.
2. Economic Impacts: From Infrastructure Costs to Agricultural Decline
Infrastructure Strain and Recovery Costs: As climate disasters worsen, U.S. cities and states would face skyrocketing repair and recovery costs. Inaction on climate means more frequent, severe weather events such as hurricanes, wildfires, and floods. The federal government, states, and private sectors would have to allocate billions more annually for disaster recovery.
Agricultural Loss and Food Security Issues: A changing climate affects agriculture through altered growing seasons, water scarcity, and increased pests and diseases. Droughts, extreme heat, and unpredictable rainfall patterns could jeopardize crop yields. States like California, a significant agricultural hub, could face severe challenges, leading to higher food prices and impacting national food security.
Reduced Competitiveness in Renewable Energy: As other countries ramp up their renewable energy sectors and green technologies, the U.S. would fall behind economically by clinging to fossil fuels. Missing out on the global transition to renewable energy could mean losing out on trillions in potential revenue and millions of jobs. Additionally, clean energy innovation could move abroad, making the U.S. increasingly dependent on foreign energy and technology imports.
Healthcare Costs and Worker Productivity: Extreme temperatures, polluted air, and climate-related diseases would increase healthcare costs and impact worker productivity. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have already noted rising health issues related to heat stress, vector-borne diseases, and respiratory problems—all of which would worsen without climate action.
3. Social Implications: Increased Inequality and Population Displacement
Marginalized Communities Suffer Disproportionately: Climate change disproportionately affects low-income and marginalized communities, which are often located in vulnerable areas like floodplains or urban heat islands. Without action, these communities would face increased health risks, housing insecurity, and economic hardships. Climate inaction could amplify existing inequalities, leading to further social unrest and deepening divisions.
Climate Migration and Displacement: As certain areas become uninhabitable due to flooding, heat, or fires, internal migration would increase, placing strain on cities as they absorb climate-displaced populations. The southwestern U.S., already experiencing drought and extreme heat, could see population shifts that strain resources in cooler regions.
Public Health Risks and Mental Health: Inaction on climate change would lead to increased health risks, not only from direct impacts like heatstroke and respiratory illness but also from indirect impacts on mental health. Extreme weather events, loss of livelihoods, and the anxiety of an uncertain future contribute to psychological stress, which, on a large scale, could impact public health systems.
4. Geopolitical Consequences: Loss of Global Leadership and Increased Conflict
Diminished International Influence and Cooperation: By ignoring climate change, the U.S. would lose credibility and moral authority on the world stage, making it more challenging to influence global policies in other areas. Allies may lose trust, viewing the U.S. as unreliable or short-sighted, and may form coalitions without American involvement, isolating the country diplomatically.
Increased Global Instability and Resource Conflicts: Climate change exacerbates resource scarcity, particularly with water and arable land. This scarcity can lead to regional conflicts, migration, and instability. The U.S. could face increased pressure to intervene in climate-induced conflicts abroad, costing resources and straining military readiness.
Trade Impacts and Economic Isolation: Other nations, particularly in the European Union, are adopting carbon tariffs on imports from countries with lax environmental policies. Continued inaction could lead to carbon-related tariffs on U.S. goods, affecting the U.S. economy and increasing the cost of exports. This could lead to reduced trade opportunities and damage U.S. economic growth.
5. Potential for Cascading and Irreversible Effects
Tipping Points in the Climate System: The Earth’s climate system has thresholds—so-called tipping points—beyond which changes become irreversible. Continued inaction increases the likelihood of passing these tipping points, such as the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet or the thawing of permafrost, which releases vast amounts of methane. These changes are self-reinforcing and could lead to a “runaway” climate scenario where warming spirals beyond human control.
Feedback Loops and Escalating Warming: With every year of inaction, the likelihood of triggering feedback loops grows. For example, the Arctic ice melt reduces the reflective surface area of the Earth, causing more heat absorption, which further accelerates melting. Deforestation, drought-induced fires, and permafrost thawing all create feedback loops that drive additional warming. A four-year delay in action would increase the probability that we lock ourselves into these self-reinforcing cycles.
Did You Hang in There with Me?
If so, I much appreciate it. I know this has been a challenging question to consider, and I thank you for continuing to read and/or listen. I know often times when it comes to such matters as climate change, all we hear is doom and gloom. Well, it’s my intention to delve into this in more depth and return soon with actions that we can all take to intervene and do everything within our powers, to not have this all to likely future come about.
So, I returned to GePeTo with this question:
Can you provide me with three possible quotes that will leave the readers inspired to take action?
“The greatest threat to our planet is the belief that someone else will save it.”
—Robert Swan, OBE, Polar Explorer
A reminder that individual and collective action is crucial; every step we take matters in protecting our world.“The climate crisis has already been solved. We already have the facts and solutions. All we have to do is to wake up and change.”
—Greta Thunberg
A call to awaken to the solutions already within our grasp, urging each of us to act with awareness and purpose.“You cannot get through a single day without having an impact on the world around you. What you do makes a difference, and you have to decide what kind of difference you want to make.”
—Jane Goodall
A powerful reminder that we are all agents of change, able to make choices that contribute to a better, more sustainable future.
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